Could the Dust Bowl Happen Again?
Daniel Weiss

People sometimes treat the Dust Bowl as ancient history, but the conditions that caused it have not disappeared. The southern plains still have dry years, and farmers still face pressure to plant every acre they can. So it is worth asking whether a disaster like the one in the 1930s could happen again.

One reason for optimism is that farming has changed. Many farmers now leave the stubble from last year's crop in the field instead of plowing it under, which protects the soil from the wind. Satellite data and weather forecasts help them decide when and what to plant. The government also pays farmers to take fragile land out of production and let grass grow back.

There are reasons for concern too. The underground water that irrigates much of the plains is being pumped out faster than rain can replace it. If that water runs low during a long drought, farmers could lose the irrigation that keeps their fields covered. Some scientists predict that a warming climate will make droughts in the region longer and more severe.

In 2011 and 2012, parts of Texas and Oklahoma experienced dust storms that reminded older residents of the stories they had heard as children. These storms were smaller than the ones in the 1930s, but they showed that the soil is still vulnerable.

I think the best answer is that another Dust Bowl is possible but not inevitable. The knowledge needed to prevent it already exists. What matters is whether we are willing to use that knowledge before the next drought arrives rather than after.
